East Asia: A time of geopolitical flux
Josh Hong
I do at times wonder if I should blame the Malaysian authorities for their decades-long indoctrination exercise that has rendered some part of the Malaysian population unable to read and think out of the box. Still, I believe the Malaysian government - although it is not entirely unblemished - cannot be held responsible for some Malaysians who obstinately refuse to digest alternative views and opinions with an open mind.
Despite Chinese racism being a topic frequently raised among the Chinese in private, some Chinese Malaysians are still outraged by my audacity to wash the dirty linen in public not so long ago.
Similarly, so zealous are these people in defending the great socialist motherland, although they prefer to live comfortably outside of it, that they have overlooked my warning over the increasingly aggressive foreign policy of Japan, and chosen to tag me, conveniently, an antsy anti-Chinese when I disagree with them on the way the global Chinese community has been handling the most recent Sino-Japanese spat.
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Peaceful and responsible
At a salon discussion organised by the Red Rose Youth Centre, a youth group linked to DAP, a member of the audience asked me if I would support Japan’s bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). I lost no time in pointing out that, technically speaking, there is nothing in the UN Charter that disqualifies Japan from being a candidate for a UNSC seat, for it is stated, crystal clear, in Article 24(1) that the UN members ‘confer on the Security Council primary responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security, and agree that in carrying out its duties under this responsibility the Security Council acts on their behalf’.
However much I am sympathetic with those whose lives are still haunted by the painful memories of Japanese aggression six decades ago, that Japan has been a responsible and peaceful member of the international community since 1945 is an undisputed fact, well recognised by the rest of the world. But there are some parts of Japan’s foreign policy that could pose serious problems to the world should circumstances arise.
I seized the opportunity to point to another important but much-neglected development within the officialdom in Tokyo: a possible amendment to Article 9 of the pacifist Constitution of Japan. As far as the Koizumi administration is concerned, which has been losing scores on the diplomatic front in East Asia since 2001, Japan will never be a ‘normal’ nation so long as its wings are clipped by Article 9.
Prime Minister Koizumi may remain in his job beyond September this year if he manages to secure a permanent UNSC seat for his beloved country, in which case he will be able to complete his term as President of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and hence PM in September 2006, ample time for him to take his (un)holy alliance with the Bush administration further with much graver implications for this part of the world.
Although any news report or analysis coming from the hermit-like North Korea should always be taken with a pinch of salt, especially when it is written in laughably out-dated and propagandistic tone, there is nevertheless an awful lot of truth in the realignment of the US-Japan strategic alliance in recent months.
Diplomatic engagements
Since the announcement of the National Defence Programme Guideline late last year, the Koizumi government has been working itself into frenzy of diplomatic engagements. The catastrophic tsunami in the Indian provided a perfect pretext for Tokyo to dispatch its largest number of troops to the Indonesian Province of Aceh in the name of humanitarian aid.
Not quite surprisingly, Japan has been asserting itself as a sovereign state by getting on the raw nerves of South Korea and China, at a time when there is so much more goodwill for it to win across Southeast Asia than to plunge the region into an unwanted dispute between a few giants.
Many are puzzled as to why the Koizumi-led Japan, already the richest and most advanced country in Asia, is so eager for its contribution in humanitarian mission and assistance to be recognised, to the point of being willing to play the second fiddle to America in Asia, while some cool-headed Japanese are wary of their country sleep-walking into being a ‘Britain in the Far East‘.
Japan has one of the best military forces in Asia, but it is restricted by its constitution to self-defense only. However, by declaring the US-backed NDPG a done deal, Koizumi is telling the world that, a US poodle Japan may be, it is now a poodle free of the muzzle, on par with Britain in Europe.
But it seems that Koizumi’s pursuit of normalcy does not stop with the UNPG, it indeed goes further. The government is now moving quietly but steadfastly towards normalising the Self-Defense Forces by renaming them Armed Forces, an alarming move that could well be the first step to amending Article 9 of the Constitution. And who first raised the issue? Richard Armitage and Colin Powell, two prominent names that need no further introduction.
It is therefore rich of some pro-US analysts to go around harping on Japan’s past war crimes, yet choosing to be mysteriously silent about the chief instigator behind the recent diplomatic offensives by the Koizumi government.
Like it or not, the UNSC issue is only secondary in view of all the talking around changing Article 9. Should it stay as it is, Japan’s significance on the UNSC will be minimal because it is barred from any active military operation. Shall Asia be too much focused on the UNSC issue and lose sight of a possible constitutional amendment, a Japan no longer bound by Article 9 could do the world much harm and damage even outside of the UNSC - alongside the US. Little wonder that Collin Powell was keen to see Article 9 reviewed and Japan on the UNSC - a maximal outcome and ultimate win for the US in the long run.
Once the constitutional Rubicon is crossed, the militarist genie will no longer be contented with remaining in its bottle and even a nuclear-armed Japan may not be too far-fetched a thought, horrible this may sound. The post-war national psyche of the Japanese is predominantly shaped by the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima.
Being the only victim nation of nuclear weapons, Japan has a very strict nuclear policy, known as Three Non-Nuclear Principles. But it now seems that the nuclear issue will be the next to bug Japan’s foreign relations with the neighbouring countries.
No doubt, President Bush will be the first to jump to his feet and applaud should Koizumi manage to nuclearize Japan before his Japanese counterpart goes off the stage in a year or two.
Implications on Malaysia
Now, what would be the implications of all these moves for Malaysia? The lack of coordination between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore in tackling the piracy issue on the Malacca Straits is worrying. But before many of those who are distrustful of the Malaysian and Indonesian authorities begin to bid US troops welcome and have them patrol the world-important yet treacherous waterway, it must be cautioned that such a move could let Japan in by the backdoor.
Let’s give credit where it is due. Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak is indeed right in turning down, rather courteously, Japan’s request to help patrol the Malacca Straits. Najib, in this instance, simply had to forego his cosy relationship with the Japanese and stand firm, for he knows full well that once the Japanese are here, the Americans will not be too far behind.
In short, in a region already pregnant with territorial, political, ethnic and religious conflicts, the arrival of a few hegemons, be they the US, Japan, China or Russia, will only produce a dangerous solution to an already deeply complex problem.
The issue of history textbook may not pale into total insignificance in the wake of all these important developments, but if one closely examines the not-so-subtle interactions between Tokyo and Washington at a macro level, the hard realities do give no comfort to those who have been praying for an Asian Renaissance.
